Will the U.S. Election Affect the Markets?
Every four years, Americans take a few minutes out of their day to choose the next President of the United States. Voting is a simple, uncomplicated act—but the months preceding it are anything but. After all, before they vote, they first have to endure the dreaded “campaign season.” From endless televised debates to the plethora of signs on everybody’s lawns, “politics” becomes the order of the day.
If you’re like me, you’re probably starting to get tired of seeing all the campaigning on tv. But you also know how important their political process is to us in Canada as their neighbour and to the rest of the world. Citizens of the U.S. will be asking some pretty tough questions, like: “Which candidate best represents my opinions and values?” “How will each candidate affect our standing overseas?” “What will each candidate do to ensure both our safety and our personal liberties?” For them, getting the answers can be both frustrating and time-consuming.
Fortunately, there’s one question that doesn’t need to be asked.
“How will the U.S. election affect the markets?”
This is a question I get every four years. So I thought I’d make life a little easier by answering it now. That means there’s one less question to worry about!
So how does the election affect the markets? The answer is:
Since 1833, the Dow Jones® has gained an average of almost 6% every presidential election year. 1 That number increases to 9.5% for the S&P 500®.2 Of course, there can be some massive exceptions. For example, in 2008, the Dow sank nearly 34%.1
But there’s a danger in using averages to try and predict what will happen. Take the “Presidential Election Cycle Theory” for instance. Once upon a time, many people believed that U.S. stock markets are always the weakest in the year following a presidential election. This was the case for Franklin Roosevelt. It also held true for Truman and Eisenhower. But in George H.W. Bush’s first year, the market rose 25.2%. In Bill Clinton’s? 19.9%. Barack Obama? 15.4%.3 It’s clear that the Presidential Election Cycle Theory just doesn’t hold water. And that’s true for actual election years as well. An average merely shows you what has happened, not what’s going to happen. (Side note: this is why you often see the financial industry emphasize that “Past performance does not guarantee future results.” Because it’s true.)
“Okay,” you might be saying, “so there’s no hard and fast rule on how election years affect the markets. But what if the Democrats/Republicans win? Won’t that have an effect?”
As worked up as we in Canada and those in the United States often get about our political beliefs, neither party tends to have that much impact on the markets compared to the other. Historically, the Dow has gone up an average of 9% every year a Democrat lives in the White House. With Republican presidents, the number is 6%.1 The difference is very small, and can be attributed to a whole range of factors, not just politics.
“So you’re saying it doesn’t really matter who ends up getting elected?”
Obviously, it matters a great deal who their president is … but not when it comes to the markets. And that’s a good thing! Here’s why:
- Their Founding Fathers created a system of government where no branch (executive, legislative, or judicial) was supposed to dominate the other. The fact that neither political party, nor election years in general, have that much influence on the markets shows that their system of checks and balances extends to investing, too.
- The markets are driven by far more than just one person or event. They’re controlled by the ebb and tide of trade, by the law of supply and demand, by innovation and invention, by international conflict and consumer confidence. The markets are like life. The course our lives take isn’t determined by one gigantic decision, but by the millions of small decisions we make every day. I don’t know about you, but I find that comforting.
“So what’s the takeaway from all this?”
The takeaway is that when it comes to investing, we control our own destinies, not politicians. The way to reaching your financial goals is by having a sound investment strategy, making informed decisions, and taking emotion out of investing. Not by worrying about their election or any of our elections.
So this year, as you watch the debates, chat amongst your friends, and decide who you think should be the next president of the United States, you can do so with the knowledge that whatever happens, the markets will go their own way … and so will you.
1 Anne Kates Smith, “How the Presidential Election Will Affect the Stock Market,” Kiplinger.com, March 1, 2016. http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T043-C008-S003-how-presidential-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html
2 Adam Shell, “History on how presidential elections affect stock markets,” ABC News, accessed March 7, 2016. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6185252&page=1
3 “Presidential Election Cycle Theory”, Investopedia.com, accessed March 7, 2016. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presidentialelectioncycle.asp